2013 Oscar Predictions: Want vs. Reality

Oscars 2013, awards, 85th

In reality, The Oscars are just another BS award ceremony, but for some reason they are held in high regard; much more than other award ceremonies. When it comes down to it though, like most things in life, The Academy’s final decision is usually based on politics, money, and friends. A few years ago, the category for Best Film was widened from five nominations to ten. If that isn’t a telling sign of what the Oscars are really used for ($$$), I don’t know what is. Also, the simple fact that Stanley Kubrick never won an Oscar in his lifetime, or that Three 6 Mafia won the award before Martin Scorsese, tells you something of the ceremony’s legitimacy. The mere fact that the goal of the award is to pit films against each other based on the year they were released doesn’t make sense when you really think about it. But,all these things aside, it’s still fun to make predictions even if you only end up upset afterward (and then return to your stance of declaring how worthless the award actually is).  So I’ve decided to make some predictions, and by way of completely ripping off a post I saw on Paste this morning.  I didn’t dive into as many awards as they did because I either hadn’t seen enough movies in the respective category to do so or didn’t care enough about the category to list it, so my views are a bit different and a bit less legit. Nonetheless, here is what I think will happen, and what should happen this Sunday.

Django, oscars, Cinematographer, Robert Richardson
Cinematography
Who’s Nominated:
Seamus McGarvey, “Anna Karenina”
Robert Richardson, “Django Unchained”
Claudio Miranda, “Life Of Pi”
Janusz Kaminski, “Lincoln”
Roger Deakins, “Skyfall”

Who Will Win: Claudio Miranda, “Life Of Pi”
Who Should Win: Robert Richardson, “Django Unchained”

In full disclosure, I have a very strong bias as to why I want “Django” to actually win. Ironic since I was just bitching about how politics controls awards, eh? Yea…guilty as charged. Nonetheless, I am not an idiot (this is to be debated), and I realize why “Life Of Pi” SHOULD win. I don’t think it’s possible for The Academy to not vote that direction. It still doesn’t change the fact that Bob Richardson is a badass, and I think he deserves the award.

 

The Dark Knight Rises, Editing, movie, oscars
Film Editing
Who’s Nominated:
William Goldenberg, “Argo”
Tim Squyres, “Life Of Pi”
Michael Kahn, “Lincoln”
Jay Cassidy And Crispin Struthers, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Dylan Tichenor And William Goldenberg, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Who Will Win: Dylan Tichenor And William Goldenberg, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Who Should Win: William Goldenberg, “Argo”
Who Should Actually Win: Lee Smith, “The Dark Knight Rises”

My guess is that “Zero Dark Thirty” receives a lot of love this year that is not %100 warranted. Great movie, yes, but it will garner more accolades than it deserves. This probably being one of them. Out of what is nominated, I believe “Argo” to be a clear and stylistic choice. However, telling a story such as TDKR at such a high pace and seamlessly sliding in moments where the film breathes and almost stands still for effect, while telling so many different story lines … that is an art. The fact that it didn’t get nominated … that is a crime.

 

Jonny Greenwood, The Master, soundtrack
Original Score
Who’s Nominated:
Dario Marianelli, “Anna Karenina”
Alexandre Desplat, “Argo”
Mychael Danna, “Life Of Pi”
John Williams, “Lincoln”
Thomas Newman, “Skyfall”

Who Will Win: John Williams, “Lincoln”
Who Should Win: Mychael Danna, “Life Of Pi”
Who Should Actually Win: Johnny Greenwood, “The Master”

Let’s face it, Johnny Greenwood will probably always get snubbed for one reason or another. But anybody that has seen “The Master” or “There Will Be Blood” knows who this award should actually belong too.

 

Adele Skyfall
Original Song
Who’s Nominated:
“Before My Time” From “Chasing Ice”
(Music and Lyrics: J. Ralph)
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” From “Ted”
(Music: Walter Murphy; Lyrics: Seth Macfarlane)
“Pi’s Lullaby” From “Life Of Pi”
(Music: Mychael Danna; Lyrics: Bombay Jayashri)
“Skyfall” From “Skyfall”
(Music and Lyrics: Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth)
“Suddenly” From “Les Misérables”
(Music: Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyrics: Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)

Who Will Win: “Suddenly” From “Les Misérables”
(Music: Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyrics: Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)
Who Should Win: “Skyfall” From “Skyfall”
(Music and Lyrics: Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth)

I still haven’t seen “Les Misérables” unfortunately, but I find it hard to believe it won’t sweep the music categories. The fact that the song from “Ted” was nominated shows you how week this category is though ,and “Skyfall” the song is legitimately great. Give it some credit.

 

Django Unchained Shootout
Sound Editing
Who’s Nominated:
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, “Argo”
Wylie Stateman, “Django Unchained”
Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton, “Life Of Pi”
Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, “Skyfall”
Paul N.J. Ottosson, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Who Will Win: Paul N.J. Ottosson, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Who Should Win: Wylie Stateman, “Django Unchained”

Another category that they can sneak to “Zero Dark Thirty”; an easy bullshit award. For those of us who have seen it, we all know the standoff scene in Candyland alone warrants this award for “Django”. This isn’t just my bias talking, this is fact.

 

Prometheus Movie, oscars, effects
Visual Effects
Who’s Nominated:
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, “Life Of Pi”
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick, “Marvel’s The Avengers”
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill, “Prometheus”
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson, “Snow White And The Huntsman”

Who Will Win: Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, “Life Of Pi”
Who Should Win: Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill, “Prometheus”

This is probably the single hardest decision for the awards this year, in my opinion. This is the equivalent of pitting “There Will Be Blood” and “No Country for Old Men” against each other for Best Picture. Both “Life Of Pi” and “Prometheus” are more than deserving. I think when it comes down to it though, “Life Of Pi” is visually beautiful where “Prometheus” is shockingly impressive.

 

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who’s Nominated:
Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Who Will Win: Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook” or Alan Arkin, “Argo”
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master” or Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained”

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master, oscarsThis category is quite stacked, and the decision is very tough. The Academy loves old actors that have proved their worth, so my bet is that is where the votes will go. However, both Christoph and Philip could also be categorized as leading roles in my opinion, and both carry tremendous weight for their respective films. In my mind, the decision should go to one of them.

 
 
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master, oscars
Actor in a Leading Role
Who’s Nominated:
Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables”
Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”
Denzel Washington, “Flight”

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln”
Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master”

There is a strong difference between imitating someone, and creating a character; granted it’s hard to imitate someone that died before audio or video recordings were available. Also, doing it in a way that is unexpected and original in comparison to everyone’s preconceived notions of how Lincoln should be portrayed was pretty ballsy. All that to say, we know DDL is the greatest actor alive, but that doesn’t mean he should win by default. Joaquin’s performance in this role was something of sheer genius, which I always think it’s stupid to say actors are geniuses because come on, you know their are REAL geniuses out there right? Nonetheless he deserves some cred for this role.

 

Quvenzhané Wallis, BEASTS-OF-THE-SOUTHERN-WILD, oscars
Actress in a Leading Role
Who’s Nominated:
Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
Who Should Win: Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”

Jessica was stunningly great, but for a 5-6 year old girl to put on a performance such as this and carry a film the way she did … come on. Politics won’t allow this, but it’d be amazing if she somehow got it.

 

BENH ZEITLIN, director, beasts of southern wild, oscars
Directing
Who’s Nominated:
Michael Haneke, “Amour”
Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”
Ang Lee, “Life Of Pi”
Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”
Who Should Win: Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”

Another difficult category, and this one even lacks directors such as Paul Thomas Anderson (“The Master) and Christopher Nolan (“The Dark Knight Rises”) that should have been nominated. Props to Paul for essentially inventing a new style of storytelling via film. Legitimately, he should probably win this, but Ben also deserves much love. The award will go to Spielberg. Epic biopic of the greatest American president directed by the biggest man in the film industry. It’s obvious. Ben Zeitlin is like David fighting Goliath. Hopefully this David has the same outcome, but I’m not so sure it will be the case.

 

Beasts of Southern Wild, movie, oscars
Best Picture
Who’s Nominated:
“Amour”
“Argo”
“Beasts Of The Southern Wild”
“Django Unchained”
“Les Misérables”
“Life Of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

Who Will Win: “Lincoln”
Who Should Win: “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”

The same exact description for director applies here. Here is to “Beasts” … BEAST IT!!!

All predictions and afterthoughts are my own, but thanks again to Paste, whom I totally stole the format of this post from.

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Author: Todd

I dig musics ...

2 thoughts on “2013 Oscar Predictions: Want vs. Reality”

  1. Great post! Totally agree about Django Unchained and Christoph Waltz. Skyfall should be the clear winner for original song, hands down. And it’s totally true that pitting films against each other is a little bit odd, but we are a competitive culture, aren’t we? All the politics of the Academy is insane…

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